NATO's Strategic Shift: Exploring Preemptive Strikes Against Russia Amid Putin's Shadow War in Europe

NATO might have to take the first shot at Russia as Putin's increasing shadow war on Europe pushes the alliance towards a potential change in strategy, a senior admiral has cautioned. Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, head of NATO’s Military Committee, stated that the alliance could be compelled to adopt a preemptive stance, marking a major departure from its longstanding policy of responding only after being provoked. In an interview with the Financial Times, Dragone mentioned that NATO is currently reevaluating its position due to the rising number of Russian sabotage activities throughout Europe. He noted, "We are examining everything. In terms of cyber, we tend to be reactive. Being more aggressive or proactive rather than reactive is something we are considering." For many years, European countries have associated a series of fires, explosions, undersea cable disruptions, and cyberattacks with the Kremlin.

These incidents have included a fire at a Ukrainian-owned warehouse in east London, the cutting of Baltic Sea cables, and airspace violations by unidentified drones, one of which caused the shutdown of Copenhagen airport. Dragone indicated that cyber retaliation would be the easiest and fastest response since many NATO countries have offensive cyber capabilities, but addressing physical sabotage or drone incursions would be more complicated, though still feasible. He mentioned that in certain situations, a "preemptive strike" could be viewed as defensive, although he recognized it was "further away from our usual way of thinking and behavior" and raised issues of legality, jurisdiction, and accountability.

As NATO discusses its approach, high-level diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Ukraine are ongoing in Florida as both parties strive to establish the framework for a possible peace agreement.